Widely considered among the most
seasonal of vehicles in terms of price, BCA Pulse has examined how
the economic conditions may have affected values of convertibles
over the past 15 months.
Age and mileage parameters at time of
sale change little for convertibles over the period – they are
invariably sold at around four years old and under 40,000
miles.
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Looking at the monthly price
progression compared to the total average price achieved at auction
suggests that the underlying economic conditions have not been the
main price moderator. There are no convincing links between the
average prices fetched by convertibles when compared with the
average price fetched by all types of car, which dip or rise
seemingly independently. The higher values for convertibles are
focused in the first half of the year, with values slipping from
August onwards.
Looking at performance compared to
CAP Clean shows some synergy in 2009, but performance was less in
sync during 2008. Again the ‘demand’, in the form of higher CAP
figures, is largely confined to the first half of the year, with
August representing a significant drop. The effect of the bullish
market in 2009 is clear, with convertible values matching the rest
of the market, and continuing to rise in March, even though average
values across the whole of the market appear to have plateaued.
Overlaying the average UK temperature
creates a not dissimilar wave shape, with demand presaging the
temperature rise.
Common sense would suggest that the
UK weather is probably the biggest single factor in determining
convertible values. A convertible is a pleasure buy – a reward
purchase – that is likely to be well-planned in advance, rather
than being an ad hoc decision. What better time to make that
purchase than when spring arrives, with warmer days and British
Summer Time’s arrival leading to lighter evenings? In fact, the
best time to buy would be October to December, when prices average
their lowest.
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By GlobalData
Fleet vehicles: residual values
|
1 year old |
2 years old |
3 years old |
||||
|
Apr 09 (£) |
May 09 (£) |
Apr 09 (£) |
May 09 (£) |
Apr 09 (£) |
May 09 (£) |
|
|
Ford: New Focus 1.6 Zetec 5dr |
5,750 |
5,600 |
4,700 |
4,600 |
3,700 |
3,600 |
|
Mondeo 1.8 LX 5dr A/C |
5,800 |
5,750 |
4,500 |
4,500 |
3,200 |
3,200 |
|
New Galaxay 2.0 Zetec/Galaxy 2.3 Zetec |
11,000 |
11,000 |
9,400 |
9,400 |
4,700 |
4,700 |
|
Land Rover: Disc Diesel 2.7 V6 SE Auto |
21,000 |
21,250 |
17,000 |
17,250 |
14,200 |
14,250 |
|
Vauxhall: Corsa 1.2I Design 16V/Corsa 1.2i |
5,800 |
5,500 |
4,700 |
4,500 |
3,200 |
3,100 |
|
Astra 1.6 Club 5dr |
5,250 |
5,300 |
4,250 |
4,400 |
3,300 |
3,400 |
|
New Vectra 1.8 Design/Vectra 1.8 Club |
5,800 |
6,000 |
4,500 |
4,600 |
3,400 |
3,500 |
|
Citroën: C5 2.0 HDI Estate VTR |
6,600 |
6,600 |
5,600 |
5,600 |
4,200 |
4,200 |
|
Peugeot: 307 1.6 S A/C 5dr |
4,800 |
5,000 |
3,800 |
3,900 |
2,900 |
3,000 |
|
407 1.8S Multimedia/407 S 1.8 |
5,300 |
5,400 |
4,300 |
4,400 |
3,200 |
3,250 |
|
BMW: New 325 SE Auto |
13,500 |
13,500 |
11,800 |
11,750 |
9,800 |
9,750 |
|
Mercedes: C200k Elegance SE Auto |
11,000 |
11,000 |
9,600 |
9,500 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
|
Audi: A4 2.0 SE |
10,600 |
10,500 |
9,000 |
8,900 |
7,250 |
7,200 |
|
Source: BCA |
||||||
