Auction house BCA’s latest research on residual values has found
that they have recovered significant ground.
BCA’s quarterly Price Index found that average prices declined
sharply after Q1 08, but recovered as sharply as they had fallen in
the first half of 2009, gaining back all the ground lost over the
past year (see chart).
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The Price Index takes the average in Q1 05 – £4,780 – as its
baseline, with a value of 100 points. The Q2 09 value of 121 points
is almost identical to the Q1 08 value of 120 points.
“The bounce in 2009 has been stimulated initially by very low
prices driving demand, but has been sustained by a relative dearth
of stock allied to adequate demand that has kept values high. The
scrappage scheme aside, the new car market remains flat and this
will impact the age and stock mix in the used car market for months
and possibly years ahead.
“For the first time in many years, we face a car parc that is
likely to level off at best and is more likely to fall – at a time
when demand for personal transport is surely destined to increase
and supply is limited, which means the index is likely to rise,”
BCA commented.
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