Used car trade prices are expected to take a turn towards more stability by October according to forecasting service CAP Black Book Plus.

The company predicted that the range of movement in used values is expected to be between -0.5% and +0.5%.
The prediction covers all major segments in the market except for convertibles, which, as the winter approaches would see a slightly greater downturn. In this segment the value is expected to drop by no more than 1.5%, however.

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CAP’s Black Book Plus forecasts have normally predicted the future value of used vehicles for between one and three months. They are based upon a number of market factors including supply and demand.

CAP said in a statement that the success of the publication has led to the decision to launch a 0-12 month forecasting version of the product, which is due for launch later in the year.

Recently, CAP’s rival publication Glass’s launched a forecasting service which it claims predicts future residual values with more accuracy and using a more transparent method than that of CAP.

Robert Hester, specialist editor for Black Book Plus at CAP, said: "Our view for the next three months is of a stable market, maintaining the positive conditions we have already seen during the year. Because there is a perceived shortage of high quality used cars in the trade, dealers are willingly paying whatever is required to avoid the evils of refurbishment costs.
"The big registration month of September will bring fresh used stock back into the market and boost consumer interest in buying cars and we see strong levels of activity all the way through the month and into October."

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