The number of petrol cars on UK roads has reached its peak this year, according to a report by Auto Trader.
Auto Trader’s report predicts a 40% decline, with petrol-powered vehicles expected to decrease from 18.7 million this year to 11.1 million by 2034. This shift is attributed to the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
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The publication forecasts a “seismic shift” towards EVs, with numbers rising from 1.25 million in 2024 to 13.7 million by 2034.
The share of EVs in the new car market is projected to increase from 18% to 23% by 2025.
However, this falls short of the UK Government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate target of 28%.
The ZEV mandate requires 22% of all new car sales to be battery-electric vehicles in 2024, with targets increasing annually to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
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By GlobalDataConcerns have been raised by carmakers and retailers about job risks and pressures on manufacturers due to the mandate.
Stellantis, owner of Vauxhall, recently announced the closure of its Luton van-making factory, affecting 1,100 jobs.
The decision was influenced by the “stringent” UK zero-emission vehicle mandate.
As reported by The Guardian, Auto Trader commercial director Ian Plummer said: “Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK. We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share.
“All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand despite a range of challenges for the industry, not least the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, changing finance rules, and the budget.”
Despite these challenges, demand for used cars remains resilient, with sales expected to rise from 7.61 million this year to 7.7 million in 2025.
Auto Trader’s data indicates that the price gap between EVs and petrol or diesel vehicles is narrowing, with one in three used EVs now priced under £20,000.
Additionally, many three to five-year-old EVs are priced competitively with their petrol or diesel counterparts.
Motorist demand for new cars has been subdued due to cost-of-living pressures.
Auto Trader anticipates a 2% increase in sales next year to 1.98 million, still 14% below the pre-pandemic peak of 2.31 million registrations in 2019.
