December’s snow causes havoc
for buyers and sellers alike, reports BCA’s Tim
Naylor.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Price movement figures might
suggest December was a strong month for sales when, in fact,
trading was severely curtailed by poor weather.
Prices often surge in December as
dealers acquire New Year stock and, while 2010 was no exception,
the weather was a factor as it left remarketing centres short of
stock – on top of the traditional seasonal slowdown and reduced
trading period.
The snow caused problems for buyers
and sellers alike. While additional business was transacted over
web-based remarketing channels, many de-fleet collections were
deferred because of the snow and stock levels fell sharply. Even
when vehicles were in situ and able to be sold, there were often
logistical problems delivering them to the buyers.
Average values climbed as
professional buyers competed to secure stock from the supplies
available. The average December BCA used car value rose by £113 to
£5,905, from £5,792 in November (and October). Performance against
CAP Clean improved to 97.4%, from 96.3% in November. Year-on-year,
values are £283 behind December 2009, a fall of 4.7%. Values remain
ahead compared to December two years ago, with £1,042 separating
the two figures.
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By GlobalData
Up to
one-year-old
The nearly new sector recorded a
rise in average value, from £18,204 to £21,691, reflecting the
strong demand for the limited numbers of vehicles available, plus a
change in model mix due to some special pre-Christmas sales
featuring high-value prestige stock. CAP performance also rose
sharply from 102% to nearly 107%.
The numbers of large MPVs,
convertibles and roadsters sold was so small that no sensible
comparison can be drawn with November. This isn’t quite so true of
the coupé and saloon sectors, with reasonable volumes sold,
although the vast majority were in the prestige manufacturer closed
sale environment.
The 4×4 sector remains strong with
average values up by nearly 16% and probably the truest reflection
of real demand in the sub-one year age bracket. The CAP performance
was similar at 115% of CAP Clean.
Estate values rose by 15% in
December, again reflecting the small numbers available. Very few
large hatchbacks were sold, but decent numbers of small hatchbacks
were remarketed, making the near 3% rise a fair reflection of
demand.
One to three years
old
Last month, we talked about the
effect of the rising fleet volumes in the one to three years old
sector – this month the reverse effect can be seen.
With volumes dropping dramatically
due to the weather, prices rose almost across the board in this
sector – a result of steady demand aligned with diminishing supply.
The significant exception was large MPVs, where numbers were very
small, meaning model mix is likely to be the main driver of the
price reduction. Low numbers were recorded for roadsters and large
hatchbacks, although values climbed for these two model shapes.
Other significant month-on-month
declines were in the small saloon and estate sectors. Here, volumes
were more robust, and simple supply and demand factors came into
play. 4×4 values rose by 6% compared to November and, generally,
average values for large saloons, hatchbacks, small MPVs and the
niche sporting sectors were up by around 2-6 points month on
month.
Performance against CAP was
generally just behind book for the second month running, with 4x4s
recording the best performance at +8%.
Three to five years
old
The majority of model types
improved their average value over the month. Only MPVs and large
saloons failed to increase month-on-month values.
CAP performance again averaged in
the mid-90s, with just 4×4 values exceeding CAP Clean for the
second month running. Mini-MPVs, roadsters and convertibles were
the relatively worst-performing sectors at around 90% of CAP.
