A survey of 2,000 Brits conducted by insurer Green Flag has revealed that 32% said they are considering getting a private car in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak.
This is a response to increased concerns over the safety of taking public transport as it presents an increased risk of infection over private mobility. This is bad news for environmental campaigners pushing to reduce the number of cars on the roads, but could provide a welcome boost to the automotive industry battered by months of negligible vehicle production and sales.
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Around 62% of respondents said they would now avoid public transport following with those living in cities most likely to be contemplating alternative ways of getting about. It is likely that, for some of those respondents, working patterns will change to see them permanently based at home – entirely eliminating the need for any kind of transport to a place of work – but, for those with no option but to travel, public transport now represents a risk of getting infected.
While the study focused on the British market, commuters the world over will be facing the same decision as businesses reopen.
The shape of virus recovery in transport networks makes it especially hard to predict what car sales will look like for the rest of 2020. GlobalData’s worldwide seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate (SAAR) sank to its lowest level in April – 48.2m versus an expected pre-COVID level hovering around 90 million – demonstrating the significant sales damage wrought by the virus.
However, a better-than-expected May brought the SAAR figure up to 59.8 million, suggesting that new vehicle demand may bounce back once restrictions are eased somewhat.
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By GlobalDataGlobalData Analyst Calum MacRae notes that “vehicle markets are on the turn as we get into the second half of the year…China’s light vehicle market was up 8% in May and South Korea’s was up nearly 10%. In Europe we’re seeing some improvement to vehicle markets now, too, helped by government subsidies for new vehicle purchases.”
Based on the latest estimates, GlobalData is predicting 2020’s global vehicle market to decline to just below 74 million vehicles – a 17.2% drop compared with the previous year. Auto companies will be watching those numbers closely, hoping that a combination of pent-up consumer demand and government-sponsored scrappage or incentive schemes helps drive a strong recovery in auto sales.
– By Mike Vousden
