There is a glimmer of hope in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, as Europe’s early epicentre markets record May results that exceed expectations.
Industry eyes in Europe this month will have been focused on sales results for Italy, Spain and France. These were the first countries in Europe to be engulfed by the Covid-19 outbreak. Consequently, their vehicle markets suffered first the consequences of lockdowns and the ensuing economic turmoil. But it also allowed them to open the shutters on their economies ahead of other European markets.
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Collectively their sales fell by 75% in March and then a staggering 93% in April. May sales for the markets have just been reported and they show there’s a way back. For the three market sales fell by a combined 55% to 268,000. It’s an unwanted indication of how mired economy and society is currently that such a fall is cause for mild celebration.
Individually France’s market performed the best, with a 47.3% year-on-year fall for light vehicle sales, with Italy falling just under 53% and Spain by 70.6%. Of the three markets Spain performed closest to GlobalData’s expectations for May with 3,000 more units sold than forecast. France’s sales nearly doubled expectations, while Italy registered 40,000 more.
Elsewhere in Europe a handful of other markets have reported May light vehicle registrations. Turkey’s market fell by just 2.4%, far exceeding GlobalData’s expectations, and an indicator of how successfully the country’s dealt with the Covid-19 threat. Poland, central Europe’s biggest market, performed in line with expectations with a YoY fall of 51% to nearly 26,000 units.
It’s early days, but May’s performance could see GlobalData’s forecast for the market revised upwards. The reporting markets accounted for 36.5% of European light vehicle sales in 2019, so it would be brave to make too many inferences from the sample, but it’s a broadly encouraging set of results. Currently, we forecast a 25.1% fall in European light vehicle sales in 2020 to 15.4 million.
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By GlobalData– By Calum MacRae
