Gathering used car value data for the
final quarter of 2009 gives us the opportunity to step back and
look at what – in hindsight – must be considered an exceptional
year for the used car market.
The quarterly data smoothes out some
of the peaks and troughs, but still shows a marketplace that was
exceptionally receptive to used cars, even with the competition
from the new car market that benefited from the scrappage scheme
for much of 2009.
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Following the exceptional levels
reached in the third quarter of 2009, average used car prices
remained high during the final quarter. Despite a small fall
against the previous quarter, the £6,000 watershed was breached for
only the second time on record.
Used car values averaged £6,028 over
the fourth quarter – a fall of £126 (2 percent) against the third
quarter’s record-breaking figure of £6,154.
However, CAP Clean figures fell
sharply by nearly five points to 95.4 percent to deliver the
weakest quarter performance of 2009.
Comparing year-on-year fourth-quarter
figures underlines the price recovery made by the used car market
in 2009. Average values are £1,201 ahead in 2009, with CAP
performance nearly five points stronger. Compared to the same
quarter in 2007, values were ahead by just £455.
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By GlobalDataAverage used car values in 2009 did
not simply ‘recover’ from the falls in 2008, but pushed on to reach
new levels. The three highest quarterly average figures ever
recorded all fell in 2009. So what was driving this price growth,
even in the depths of the recession? Simple supply and demand may
sound obvious, but there can be no other reason.
The wholesale markets in 2009 were
often short of quality stock. While British Car Auctions saw no
real evidence of contract extensions in the fleet and leasing
markets – the average age and mileage of cars from this sector was
very stable – volumes from dealer part-exchange sources were under
pressure.
Fewer deals done in the retail sector
– particularly on new cars – meant retailers had fewer
part-exchanges to exchange through the wholesale sector. Those they
did get in were often retained for retail as gaps began to appear
on the forecourts.
In late 2008-early 2009, market
commentators began to warn that used car prices had fallen as far
as they were likely to do and if motorists wanted to change cars,
now would be a good time to do it. This created a wave of demand
that washed into the auction halls.
The most desirable vehicles often
sold in auction for 20 to 40 percent above guide prices and there
were instances of cars making thousands above the expected retail
value in auction. Even in the budget end of the market, some cars
were making exceptional values – a 2004 Ford Mondeo estate with
500,000 miles on the clock realised £825.
Tim Naylor, editor, BCA
Pulse
Fleet vehicles: residual values
|
1 year old (20,000m) |
2 year old (40,000m) |
3 year old (60,000m) |
||||
|
Dec 09 (£) |
Jan 10 (£) |
Dec 09 (£) |
Jan 10 (£) |
Dec 09 (£) |
Jan 10 (£) |
|
|
Ford: New |
7,200 |
7,400 |
5,800 |
6,000 |
3,750 |
4,000 |
|
Mondeo 1.6 Zetec/1.8 LX 5dr A/C |
8,800 |
9,200 |
6,300 |
6,500 |
3,000 |
3,250 |
|
New Galaxy 2.0 Zetec |
11,500 |
12,000 |
9,000 |
9,400 |
7,000 |
7,250 |
|
Land |
24,500 |
25,000 |
20,000 |
20,500 |
16,500 |
17,000 |
|
Vauxhall: |
5,750 |
6,000 |
4,400 |
4,600 |
3,500 |
3,750 |
|
Astra 1.6 Club 5dr |
6,250 |
6,500 |
5,100 |
5,250 |
3,500 |
3,750 |
|
Vectra 1.8 Design |
6,800 |
7,000 |
5,250 |
5,500 |
3,800 |
4,000 |
|
Citreön: |
6,500 |
6,750 |
5,200 |
5,400 |
4,100 |
4,250 |
|
Peugeot: |
5,500 |
5,750 |
4,500 |
4,750 |
3,300 |
3,500 |
|
407 1.8S Multimedia/407 S 1.8 |
6,200 |
6,400 |
4,500 |
4,750 |
3,200 |
3,400 |
|
BMW: New |
16,250 |
16,750 |
12,750 |
13,200 |
10,500 |
10,800 |
|
Mercedes: |
15,500 |
16,000 |
12,350 |
12,750 |
8,500 |
8,800 |
|
Audi: A4 |
12,000 |
12,500 |
9,500 |
10,000 |
7,250 |
7,500 |
|
Source: BCA |
||||||
